Blue Jays sign Jose Bautista Long Term

I know this post is a little late, but I really wanted to to wait for the dust to settle before diving in (read: I'm lazy). Now that it's basically official, let's take a look at what could either be one of the better signings in Blue Jays history or yet another Wellsian albatross.

I first commented on the potential signing of Jose Bautista a couple of days ago, saying that it would be in the team's best interest to sign their best player to a long term contract now, rather than after the season. My reasoning being that because of their newfound financial flexibility resulting from the Vernon Wells and Alex Rios trades (getting rid of in Rios' case) they could take a chance on signing Bautista and not having the contract hamstring the team should he fall back to earth. Had the Jays waited until next offseason, and Jose put up comparable numbers, we'd be looking at a $100M+ contract. I just didn't see how the reward of waiting justified the risk of losing him to free agency or having to fork over a nine figure contract. That being said, I based my opinion on the assumption that we'd be looking at most a 3 year deal worth $45M, not 6 years and $64M.

I could go on forever jumping back and forth between the positives and negatives about this deal, but instead I'm going to try to summarize my overall thought about the signing in the next paragraph (and a half):

There is not doubt that Jose Baustista is an elite baseball player. Regular baseball players don't typically hit 50+ homeruns, outlier or not. The team is better with him on it, and when it really comes down to it, this contract is not going to make or break the the Jays' long term plans regardless of Jose's performance throughout it. The team has a plethora of talent coming up through the minors who should be impact players in the next couple of years. Those players don't cost much, and will be with the team (barring a trade, injury, etc.) throughout the duration of Bautista's contract. If the team is loaded with young, controllable talent with only a couple veteran players making high salaries, I fail to see how a potentially bad contract or two pushes the payroll too high for Rogers' deep pockets. Their estimated opening day payroll for 2011 is $70M, and that includes the $8M Bautista is receiving this year. Bump that up to $80-85M in 2012 commitments and there is still a ton of flexibility for Anthopolous to sign a free agent or two to put the team over the top. This of course is assuming Beeston hasn't been bullshitting us and that the Jays' payroll can be up to $140M+ when the time is right. That's a big assumption.

I don't condone the spending of money just because it's burning a hole in your pocket, but this deal could very well turn out to be a great one for the Jays. The chances of it failing are equally as high, but that doesn't mean the team just pissed away millions of dollars on some jabroni. They took a calculated risk. Those don't always work out, but thanks to the money they've recently saved and the backing of the richest ownership group in baseball, I believe it was a risk worth taking.

Extra Note:
We still haven't factored in the additional revenue brought in by the Jays with this signing. I agree that a single player doesn't bring people into the stands, but a quality product does. The Jays are a better team with Jose Bautista on it and if he's able to come remotely close to the player he was in 2010 for (at least) two years of the contract he'll help this team contend, add excitement and subsequently bring people to the Rogers Centre. It's very easy to say that "Rogers is a corporation whose sole responsibility is to its shareholders" and hense giving out large contracts to unproven players acts against that ingrained responsibility, but you have to take into account that a portion (how big a portion we are yet to have any idea) of the money spent on Bautista is directly returned to the team in the form of a better product resulting in more fans. I realize this is very difficult to quantify, but for anyone taking the stand that Rogers acted against its core principles as a for-profit corporation by "risking" so much money on an unproven asset has not factored in the fact that Bautista also creates a direct return on investment.

Jose Bautista arbitration hearing pushed back

According to Enrique Rojas of ESPN, and later confirmed by everybody on the internet, the Jays and Jose Bautista have agreed to push back the date of their arbitration hearing four days in order to further discuss a muli-year deal. This is great news for any Jays fan wanting the team to lock up their best player for the next several years as it clearly indicates the sides are working towards a deal.

There are two main schools of thought when it comes to the potential of signing Bautista to a long term(ish) contract. I won't get into the discussion of whether or not the Jays should actually sign him - because that argument has been beaten to a pulp - but instead will focus on whether the team should sign Jose now or wait for him to prove himself for one more year before locking him up.

The first argument centres around the idea that since the Jays unloaded the massive Vernon Wells contract, along with Alex Rios' contract the year before, they now have the financial flexibility to to take a "wait-and-see" approach with Bautista. This argument has been..ugh..argued..at Getting Blanked (which if you're a baseball fan and haven't yet read, do yourself a favour and bookmark the shit out of it). The argument follows that the Jays can now afford to risk having to pay him the massive contract that he no-doubt will command should he produce numbers even close to what he accomplished last year. Instead of getting hamstrung with another large contract committed to an under-producing player (because they want to take advantage of the discount the team would receive by taking a chance on Bautista's ability to replicate last year's performance) they can simply wait until next offseason to better judge Bautista's talent.

I tend to disagree with that argument. A lot. I look at the Jays the newfound financial where-with-all as an opportunity to take a chance on Bautista being able to replicate his 2010 performance. This is all within reason, of course, but if the two sides can agree to a 3-year contract in the $30-$45M range then I (as a Jays fan) would be more than willing to take the chance.

I think we can all agree that it will be tough for Bautista to put up the ridiculous numbers he did last year, but even if his homerun production drops by 20, he's still a 30 homerun guy who adds significant value to the team in other areas with his defensive flexibility and OBP. I'm not saying he's a great defender by any means, but he's a capable defender who is able to be moved around to different positions, allowing the Jays to set their young prospects up for success by being able to place them in the field where they are most comfortable (re: Brett Lawrie).
Even if Bautista's production siginificantly drops, he'll still provide value, and if the team can sign him for three years then with the money saved on the Wells and Rios deals they can afford to pay a bad contract. It's not really all that big of a risk. This all changes, though, if Bautista is looking for a 5+ year contract. If that's the case, then run Alex, run!

I also find it hard to accept as an argument that one more year is enough to solidify Bautista as a legitimate superstar. If the wait-and-see argument takes into account that we don't yet know if Bautista is for real, are we really THAT much more confident in his long-term viabilty after two years of success? Obviously two years is a greater sample size to judge just that, but are the additional at bats really worth what would likely be a contract double the size of what the Jays could sign him for today? I think not.  

It should be an interesting next four days!

Blue Jays trade Mike Napoli to the Rangers for Frank Francisco

There's got to be something I'm missing here. I usually buy into the whole trust in AA and his legion of minions way of thinking, but I can honestly say this one has me completely stumped.

Aside from being able to unload Vernon Wells' contract on the Angels, I was actually excited about the acquisition of Mike Napoli. He seemed like such a perfect fit to share time at the three positions where the Jays are most uncertain (Catcher, First Base and DH). Instead, Anthopolous has flipped him for another right-handed reliever.

The Jays now have Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor and Frank (don't call me San) Francisco manning the back end of the bullpen - all of whom are right handed. So essentially the Jays have traded from a position of weakness to add to a position of strength (I use the term "strength" more in terms of numbers rather than actual ability). Don't get me wrong, Francisco is actually a pretty good pitcher and is arguably the best of the bunch the Jays now control, but what the two players involved offer the current Jays lineup just doesn't add up.

So let's try to come up with some reasons for the trade, and then proceed to shoot them down:

1) AA is stockpilling above average relievers in hopes of receiving draft picks after the season.
Considering Francisco also accepted the arbitration offer from the Rangers last season due to his Type A free agent ranking, coupled with the fact that he will most likely get a chance to close for the Jays (meaning that ranking isn't likely to change), I can't picture a scenario where he doesn't accept another arbitration offer next year. Sound familiar? Well it should, it's exactly what the team is dealing with in Jason Frasor. No team would give up a first round pick for either pitcher and therefore it makes more sense for them to accept the offer of arbitration. The draft pick logic also doesn't hold true even if Francisco somehow slips to become a Type B free agent (resulting in whatever team signs him not having to give up a first round pick) and the Jays receive a supplementary round pick, because Mike Napoli is still worth more than a sandwich pick. It's a lose/lose.

2) AA is stockpilling above average relievers in hopes of flipping them at the trade deadline. 
Once again, just look at what happened last year to both Frank Francisco and Jason Frasor. No teams are willing to give up much to acquire them mid-season because they know the players will be Type A free agents and will be expensive the next year through arbitration.

3) AA has a separate trade in the works and required a pitcher like Frank Francisco to make it happen. 
There has to be something brewing behind the scenes, but I find it hard to believe that Frank Francisco is the missing piece to any potential future trade AA has cooking. His numbers just aren't different enough from Frasor's to make it make sense. Here are each pitcher's numbers last season:

Frank Francisco: 3.33 K/BB, 0.85 HR/9, .243 AVG, 1.27 WHIP, 3.12 FIP
Jason Frasor: 2.41 K/BB, 0.57 HR/9, .246 AVG, 1.38 WHIP, 3.31 FIP

There are also a couple other issues that comes out of the trade:

1) Why didn't the Jays sign Manny Ramirez?

I have to imagine, given past decisions, that Anthopolous knew ahead of time that he was going to flip Napoli and leave the team with a void at DH (even with Encarnacion on the team, I mean come on..). I realize that it might decrease the leverage the Jays would have in trading Napoli, but fuck, he's still a goddamn good player and I find it hard to believe that if the Rangers really wanted him that the Jays still could have received Francisco in return. Ramirez plus Francisco is greater than Napoli, regardless of the flexibility Napoli provides to the lineup.

2) Is Anthopolous trying to piss the Angels off?

I mentioned in my previous post about the Wells trade that GMs around the league probably took notice at how Anthopolous took advantage of the Angel's apparent desperation and essentially made their GM look ridiculous. My thought was that other team's GMs might think twice about swinging a deal with the crafty Toronto GM. What do you think other General Managers will think now that Anthopolous has fleeced the Angels, then traded the player back into the AL West? I'm assuming AA never mentioned anything about Napoli being flipped into the same division as his former team. That's a greasy move. Greasy like a fox.  

Is this a slight hiccup in what has been an incredibly successful start to Anthopolous' Genera; Manager career? Or does AA have something else in store to prove us all wrong? Only time will tell, I guess.

More on the Vernon Wells trade

Erect the gold statue

Now that some of the dust has settled after the blockbuster deal that sent the king of all albatrosses to the LA Angels it's time o do a little more analysis. In the interest of keeping my thoughts together and organized, I present to you the Glory Jays' Top Eleven Vernon Wells Trade Reaction Contemplations. Kind of rolls of the toungue, doesn't it?

1) The fact that no money is involved and the Jays are actually acquiring useable pieces in Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera makes me love Alex Anthopolous even more. He's literally done the impossible in ridding the team of Wells' contract, and got something positive in return.

2) I guess this means that Rajai Davis will be the team's everyday centre fielder, which I'm actually ok with (for now). Davis sucked last year, no doubt, but his -7.1 UZR in centre field was basically the same as Wells (-7.0 UZR). The difference being that Davis' UZR in centre field in the previous two years were positive, while Wells put up -21.8 and -18.4 UZR in 2008 and 2009, respectively. So I think it's safe to conclude that Rajai Davis is a better centre fielder than Vernon. He obviously doesn't provide the same power potential that Wells does (I'll let you look those numbers up), but if he can return anywhere close to the OBP he put up in 2009 he'll be a more than capable lead-off hitter with base-stealing speed, which is something the Jays lacked (power was not).

3) This deal obviously frees up a shitload of money, which could potentially be used to lock up Joe Bautista long term. I still don't know if I buy into this train of thought, as it feels as though they would be falling right back into the trap that AA just managed to wriggle the team out of. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Bautista fan, but if he lights it up again next year he'll likely command a massive salary that could hand-cuff the team once his performance inevitably declines with age. If by the trade deadline Bautista is mashing like he did last year, I'd expect AA to trade him if the right package of blue-chip prospects is offered, rather than look to sign him long term.

4) The Jays receiving Mike Napoli in the deal gives the team a highly versatile and productive player which creates a great deal of options for them. He can be used as a platoon catcher with JPA, a platoon first baseman with Adam Lind (Napoli is a right handed hitter who hits lefties well, while Lind is not and does not), and/or a platoon DH with Encarnacion. The Jays also now control a player who could become very attractive to teams in the playoff hunt at the trade deadline next year.

5) I was glancing over some LA Angels blogs and forums last night to see what the general reactions were to the trade. At first, Angles fans seemed confused but somewhat optimistic because they (rightfully so) assumed that money would be coming LA's way to offset some of Vernon's contract. As I scrolled through the discussions, it basically turned into a black hole of disbelief. Blue Jays forums were jam packed with disbelief as well, only it was more like a teenager getting laid by his friend's hot mom, and pinching himself to make sure it wasn't a (wet) dream.

6) I found it interesting to compare this transaction to that of Alex Rios going to the Chicago White Sox. On the one hand we have Vernon Wells, whose contract dwarfs Rios' and is 3 years older than him, being traded to the Angles for a positive return. On the other hand, Rios was given away for free to Chicago just to rid the team of his contract. This trade just gets better and better, while I continue swooning over AA.

7) There's no doubt that in the short term, the Jays are worse off without Wells in the line-up, which is something that maybe Anthopolous is banking on. Toronto will have only $17.4M in payroll commitments in 2012 and will likely make a run at some high-end free-agents. If the Jays finish in the bottom half of the standings in 2011 their first round draft pick is protected and the team won't have to give it up if/when they make a splash in the free agent market. Pujols anyone?
8) As Keith Law pointed out, this deal wreaks of deperation on the Angels part. I'm assuming the majority of GMs around baseball would agree and may be hesitant to pick up the phone the next time Anthopolous calls, seeing as how he so opportunistically took advantage of LA's depseration.

9) I read on an Angels blog that what LA has essentially done is give away Mike Napoli and sign Juan Rivera to a 4-year $85M contract. While I don't necessarily agree that Rivera and Wells are the same player statistically (and neither does WAR graphs), it's still a pretty damn funny way to look at it.

10) Given the amount of money remaining on Wells' contract, he'll make a higher per year salary than what Carl Crawford is making in Boston. Granted Crawford is signed for 7 years as opposed to Vernon's 4, but this really has to sting for Angels fans. I think we should all give a collective "THANK YOU!" to Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre for spurning the Angels and signing elsewhere. There's no way this deal gets done, without a boatload of cash going LA's way, if either of those players sign with the Angels.

11) Some quick comments from MLBtraderumors.com regarding the trade:

• Keith Law points out that with the money Toronto saved in the trade, the Jays could become very good, very fast. I tend to agree.
• Richard Griffin tweeted that this deal might already be Anthopolous' best ever. That's impossible to say, Richard, but it is a damn good notch in his belt. 
• Ken Rosenthal wonders if the Jays would have caved and sent $20M+ to the Angels had it been necessary. As you'll see in point "8" of a previous post of mine, I would have been willing to eat even more. 
• Along the same lines, a long time talent evaluator told ESPN's Buster Olney that the Jays would have had to take on at least $30M in salary to make the deal remotely even. 

Have a great Saturday night!

Breaking News: Vernon Wells traded to LA Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera

My thoughts exactly, Vernon.

According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Toronto Blue Jays have somehow just unloaded Vernon Wells and the remainder of his 7 year $126 Million contract - which still consists of a total $86M over the next four freakin' years!!! - to the LA Angels in exchange for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.

After my friend Charlie sent me a text letting me know about the deal, I nearly kissed the Hungarian woman sitting across from me on the Go Train, but before we plan to erect a solid gold statue of Alex Anthopolous at 1 Blue Jays Way, let's wait to hear what all the details are.

I've read in the Twitter world and heard on a couple blogs that were quicker to the draw than me (which, considering my last post was over a week ago, really isn't that impressive) that rumors were swirling indicating that Kyle Drabek was involved in the deal. Shipping off their #1 prospect to save money on the remainder of Wells' contract seems against the common theme that AA and Rogers have been pounding into us that they're willing to spend money on high-end, young, controlable talent. For now, I'm going to chaulk those rumors up to just that: Rumors.

The deal is still pending physicals. And by that I mean Vernon Wells is taking a physical since I'm pretty sure the Angels could ship over the rotting corpses of Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera - who combined will make about half of Vernon's salary next year - and the Jays would still gladly accept the trade.

The financial details have not yet been revealed, so it's tough to do a complete analysis on the deal, other than HOO-FUCKING-RAY!  More to come on this trade once the details work themselves out.

What a great start to the weekend...

Yankees sign Rafael Soriano

So the Yankees have finally found someone this offseason who was willing to take their money, and it came in the form of shut-down closer - ugh, I mean set-up man - Rafael Soriano. The Yankees have agreed to pay Soriano $35M for the next three years to be the set up man for Mariano Rivera for the next two at least. Soriano can also opt out of the contract after year 1 or year 2. Before getting into what this means in a baseball sense for the Yankess (and subsequently the AL East), can we all marvel in the greatness that is Scott Boras? I know he's a dick, but goddamn is he good at his job.

Somehow Boras managed to make Soriano the 5th highest paid reliever in baseball, in a market that had seemingly dried up, and to be a set-up man for fucks sake. Soriano's annual average salary ($11.67M) trails only Rivera, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez - all of whom are closers.

Another interesting twist in this news is the fact that only days ago Brian Cashman stated that the team will not give up its 2011 first round pick to sign any of the remaining free agents. Unless those words were used simply as a negotiating tactic (which for obvious reason didn't fucking work), it looks like Cashman may be losing the confidence of those above him. After missing out Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, I can't imagine the remaining Steinbrenners are too happy with their golden boy and perhaps forced his hand on this acquisition.

There is no doubt that this signing makes the Yankees better immediately, and takes a lot of pressure off their young (see: shitty) staff. If the Yankees are in the lead by the time the 8th inning rolls around I can't imagine them not winning 99% of those games. What this signing does, however, is once again mortgage a portion of New York's future. If you compare the Yankees offseason to that of the Boston Red Sox, the outcomes are night and day. Boston not only acquired the better free agents/trade acquisition they did so while actually upgrading their draft positions this year. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, plus the draft compensations they will receive from Victor Martinez signing in Detroit and Adrian Beltre signing in Texas greatly outway what they had to give up in prospects and draft picks to acquire the two superstars.

Then there's Tampa Bay who now possess 3 first round draft picks and 6 supplemental draft picks in what is being widely regarded as the deepest draft in years. That's how you compete in the AL East on a shoestring budget, and that's what Anthopolous is trying to do with the Blue Jays - except with more cash available when needed.

Alomar gets into the Hall of Fame, and it's about time.

Yesterday, Roberto Alomar was awarded his rightful place in the Baseball Hall of Fame, after being snubbed the year before by the Baseball Writers of American (BBWAA), and he'll be entering as a Toronto Blue Jays. Let's first take a quick look at Alomar's numbers over his career:

• Career .300 average, .371 OBP, .443 SLG
• 210 home runs, 1134 RBI, 1508 runs scored, 2724 base hits
• 474 stolen bases
• Selected to 12 All-Star teams, starting 9 of them at 2B
• 10 Gold Glove awards
• 2 World Series Championship with the Toronto Blue Jays

Looking at those numbers, there's no way Alomar shouldn't have been a first ballot Hall of Famer. Which leads me the general argument of this entire post - that hall of fame voting is ass-backwards. For one thing, the Baseball Writers are around the players more often than anybody else. While it's a good thing for the voters to be well-informed about the players they're voting on, at what point do their personal opinions of the players influence their ability to objectively vote on whether or not they deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.

Admittedly, Alomar wasn't always a model citizen. He spat in the face of umper John Hirshbeck and had unprotected sex with his girlfriend while supposedly knowing he was HIV positive (that one's up for debate). But the fact of the matter is, his baseball numbers are more than adequate to have been elected to the Hall on his first go, and those are the only factors that should be taken into account.  

There are writers out there who have taken this opportunity to compare Alomar's shortcomings to those of players who have taken steroids. The problem with that argument is that for all of Alomar's faults, none of them were directly related to his ability to play the game at a high level. Steroids on the other hand play a large part in the numbers a player puts up over his career. I don't believe, however, in the Baseball Writers (BBWAA) taking it upon themselves to grandstand about players who are suspected of using steroids (ie. Mark McGuire). It is not their job to punish players based on allegations rather than proof, and until proof is obtained, any player suspected of using steroids should have just as much of an opportunity as someone who is not.   

A couple last points about it taking Alomar two tries to make it to Cooperstown:  If personal feelings had nothing to do with Alomar not being a first ballot Hall of Famer, how is it possible that Andre Dawson was elected last year while Alomar was not? Dawson's career line is .279/.323/.482, he had 8 gold gloves and 8 all-star appearances. Aside from SLG%, Alomar's numbers are better across the board. 

Last year, Alomar received 73.7% of the votes (75% is required to enter the Hall). That equates to 428 of a possible 581 votes. This year, he received 90%, or 523 votes. For the sake of this entire blog post and argument, wouldn't it be fucking great to hear what changed for the 95 voters who decided Alomar was more deserving of entering the Hall of Fame this year as opposed to last? His baseball numbers didn't change, so I think it's safe to assume that after the prestige of being a first ballot Hall of Famer was taken away from Alomar, those voters felt like they did their part in punishing Alomar for his past, and that was now worthy of entering the Hall. As if it was their responsibility.   

For more on the subjectivity of Hall of Fame voting, check out this article over at fangraphs. I'd love to hear the BBWAA explain this one.

Jerry Howarth - as usual - says it best. If you are a fan of the Jays, a fan of Roberto Alomar and a fan of nostalgia listen to this interview.

Last thing: People are awesome.