I'm back! Oh, and the Blue Jays sign Octavio Dotel

After a week or so of speculation, the Jays have officially signed Octavio Dotel to a one year deal worth $2.75M with a $3.75M club option for 2012 and a $750K buyout. Imagine getting paid $750K because the team doesn't want you? Ah what a life...

There's been a lot of mixed reactions to the acquisition and to be honest I'm still a little bit on the fence about it. Looking from a strictly dollars-for-talent viewpoint it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Dotel will be making closer's money next year, and based on his lefty/righty splits alone, it seems like a fucking horrible idea to give the closer reigns to him. Let's take a look at his career splits against right and left handed batters:

Lefties:

• WHIP: 1.49
• K/9: 9.44
• BB/9: 5.59
• AVG: .236
• FIP: 4.66

Righties:

• WHIP: 0.99
• K/9: 12.28
• B/9: 2.70
• AVG: .196
• FIP: 2.95

If those don't look like righty specialist numbers, then I really don't know what do.

There are other things to consider with the acquisition, however. For one, it should be safe to assume that Dotel will retain his Type B status for next year (especially if he gets some closing opportunities) and will earn the Jays a supplemental draft pick next year if they decline his option. Which they will. The other thing to consider is that th Blue Jays - and Rogers - apparently have an endless supply of money, so why the fuck do we (as fans) care about them overpaying for a a pitcher who should be used strictly against right-handed batters. If he can continue his dominance against righties then the team will have an incredibly valuable option coming out of the bullpen, and if we're to believe what we've been told abut Rogers' willingness to spend, then Dotel's salary shouldn't be an issue regardless of whether or not he's closing next year.

There's little doubt that Dotel will be given an opportunity to be te Jays' everyday closer next year, but over the course of the season those career numbers will start to show. Let's hope John Farrell and Alex Anthopolous are prepared to use the veteran reliever the way he should be used, and avoid a Brian Tallet-esque disaster like last year.

The ten ways the Jays would have been legitimate contenders in 2011

Every now and then it's fun to escape from reality and imagine a world where everything works out just the way you want it to. Here at the Glory Jays we like to try and keep a level head when analyzing the goings-on in the baseball world so we can make rational and informed opinions. But it's Christmas (or close enough) that we've decided to treat ourselves to an early Christmas present and list the ten things the Jays could have done so far this offseason to have vaulted them into the realm of real fucking contenders to win the World Series. Some in the list were actual possibilities, some not so much. I'm also taking into assumption that (within reason...ish) money isn't a concern.

So without further adieu:

1) Sign Adam Dunn to play first base
It's crazy to actually say that an athlete making $56M over 4 years is a bargain, but those are the times we live in (or rather MLB players live in), and that signing was a fucking steal. There's almost no risk for the White Sox as Dunn has been the same player year in and year out for basically his entire career. He hit at least 40 homeruns per year from 2004 to 2008, and 38 in 2009 and 2010. His OBP has never dropped below .350 and his career OBP is .381. He's no star defensively, but if it would have taken the Jays to offer $60M over 4 years to sign him, I would have done it.

2) Keep Shaun Marcum
This is a no brainer if you're looking to legitimately contend in 2011. In the real world, the Jays are rebuilding and I like the trade for Brett Lawrie, but obviously you don't trade one of your top starting pitchers for a prospect when the goal is to win now.

3) Sign Cliff Lee
This is where I start to deviate into fantasy land, much like the Tao of Stieb did in a post earlier this month. I can't think of any real reasons why Cliff Lee would have signed in Toronto unless the Jays had already made all the moves I've listed (plus what I am going to list) in this post, and if they threw an obscene amount of money at him. He obviously had a hard-on for Phillidelphia, regardless of the fact that they shipped him off to make room for Halladay last off-season, and convincing him to come to the Jays would have been next to impossible. But give him $200M over 7 years and he signs. Ahhhh money solves everything.

4) Trade for Dan Uggla
The rift-raft the Braves sent to Florida for Uggla made me really question why Anthopolous couldn't make a deal for the slugging second baseman, The only reason I thought of was that he didn't see him with the team long term and didn't want the distraction of negotiating (or not negotiating) a contract extension with him. But that's a lame excuse, even if it wasn't just fabricated by me two seconds ago. Either way, for the Jays to have truly been contenders in 2011 I would have made the trade, and moved him or Hill to third base.

5) Give the reigns to JP Arencibia
Let the kid play. There really weren't many better options on the free-agent market, and this team I'm building in fantasy land is so ridiculous(ly good) and as long as JPA doesn't forget how to catch a ball we should be ok. Plus there's Molina backing him up just in case.
Note: Even though I'm throwing money around like it's going out of style, I still wouldn't have matched 3 years and $18M for John Buck or 4 years and $50M for Victor "soon-to-be-DH" Martinez. That, my friends, is ri-fucking-diculous.

6) Make the trade for Justin Upton
I realize Arizona was really just testing the market, and wasting everyone's time, but seeing as how I just threw $200M at Cliff Lee, rationality has gone out the window. Offer Drabek, Lind, Stewart, Hech and D'Arnaud and see if he bites. And he will. Because I say so.

7) Sign Manny Ramirez to DH
Manny is in serious decline, but he's still on on-base machine. If we can find a way to get him back on the juice, and undetected, for 2011 he'd be a force at DH.

8) Do whatever it takes to get rid of Vernon Wells
At this point in his career, what is Vernon Wells worth? Would you be comfortable with $10M per year? Less? More? Let's use $10M per year as a benchmark and assume other teams view it the same way. Trade him to a willing partner and eat 50% + of his contract to make it happen. Remember, we have Justin Upton now and need to make room.

9) Build a crazy good bullpen
Sign Rafael Soriano and Bobby Jenks, and bring back Scott Downs. That ought to do it.

10) Bring back the $82 Jays Pass
In case Anthopolous was wrong in assuming that fans will return to the ballpark once the team is winning.

Starting Line Up:
1. Escobar SS
2. Snider LF
3. Upton CF
4. Bautista RF
5. Dunn 1B
6. Uggla 3B
7. Ramirez DH
8. Hill 2B
9. JP Arencibia C

Starting Rotation:
1. Cliff Lee
2. Ricky Romero
3. Shaun Marcum
4. Brandon Morrow
5. Brett Cecil

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Richard Griffin, still wrong.

Yesterday we made reference to a Richard Griffin article where he proclaims that Alex Anthopolous was schooled by veteran (and Canadian - like that fucking matters) GM Doug Melvin of the Milwaukee Brewers. A few blogs and forums around the Blue Jays' blogosphere were a little up in arms about the insinuation, and the article became somewhat of a joke when Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports pointed out that the Jays were told early in the offseason that Greinke would not waive his no trade clause to come to Toronto, thereby making the statement that AA was "schooled" unjustified.

Well Griffin is back at it again today, trying to justify his previous article with this piece in the Star this morning. The article says that AA wouldn't agree to send Snider and Drabek plus others in return for Greinke and that is the reason the deal didn't happen. As Griffing puts it:

He stepped aside, willing to re-enter the fray if Royals GM Dayton Moore ever called back and lowered the asking price. Yes, the Jays were on Greinke's no-trade list, but so were the Brewers.

The Brewers were also on his no-trade list BEFORE the Jays sent Marcum to Milwaukee and made it clear to the league that they were prepared to risk their future for a shot at the division now. Which is exactly what Greinke was looking for. It also couldn't hurt Greinke to dominate the senior circuit for a couple years before he hits free-agency, as his numbers will no doubt be a hell of a lot better in the NL Central than they would be after 2 years in the AL East.

In Rosenthal's article he also names that the Jays were willing to part with Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony Gose, one of JP Arencibia or Travis D'Arnaud and a young pitcher. I realize that I'm a little bias here, but those prospects look a lot better than what Milwaukee had to send to KC in return for their Ace pitcher.

I wanted to touch on (make fun of) a couple other ridiculous points Griffin makes in this morning's article. I think what he was trying to do was compare the teams that are making a push for winning now to the scenario the Jays are currently in. But just like Monday's article where he compares AA to a texas hold 'em player who likes to see every flop, the thoughts become so convoluted that the reader (me) is left wondering what the hell he's trying to get across. Anyway here's a section of the article that I found particularly retarded:

The three biggest superstar free-for-alls of the current off-season - Jayson Werth, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke - were all won by suprise teams, believed to be long shots at best.

All three - the Nationals, Phillies and Brewers - are teams that had observed the Giants' unlikely World Series win and decided the future of contending is now, that rebuilding is day-to-day.

For the sad-sack Nationals, signing the free-agent outfielder Werth for seven years and $126 million while he was courted by the Red Sox, among others, was all about contending as soon as their prized No. 1 overall picks are ready for prime time.

So according to this reasoning, the Nationals signed a 32-year-old outfielder in the hopes that when their top prospects are ready for the big leagues he will still be there (and still be good) to help win a Championship. Does anyone else see how backwards that argument is? Why not instead save their money, and spend it on an available free-agent when those prospects are actually contributing in the MLB? Sound like a familiar plan? It should because that's exactly what the Jays are waiting to do.

And when the hell did Carl Crawford stop being one of the top superstars who were available this offseason? You'd think that since he signed the largest contract of the offseason that he sould be included in the argument. But what do I know.

Minor league signings. Hooray!

The Jays announced six minor league signings today, including RHP Winston Abreu, catcher Ryan Budde, LHP Sean Henn, LHP Mike Hinckley, RHP Brian Stokes, and former Oriole outfielder Corey Patterson.

Patterson is the most notable of all the signings and will undoubtedly push the Jays over the top in the AL East. Seems like the reason why Brewers' GM Doug Melvin was so easily able to "school" Alex Anthopolous while acquiring Zack Greinke from the Royals was because AA was spending far too much time contemplating minor league depth moves. I'd give a greater explanation of what that painfully sarcastic sentence was in reference to, but instead I'll take the lazy way out and direct you over to the Score's Getting Blanked for a much more in depth analysis of the Richard Griffin article in the Star this morning to which I am referring.

As for the minor league signings, Corey Patterson is an interesting, if not a horribly under-fucking-whelming one. I can see the logic in the signing, though, as it provides the Jays with another outfield option in case Jose Bautista is moved to third base (which seems increasingly more likely with each passing day) and if they aren't comfortable with Rajai Davis as their everyday left/right fielder. Essentially, based solely on their batting stats, Corey Patterson is the poor man's Rajai Davis - which doesn't bode all that well, but he is a decent backup plan in case any of the outfielders get injured or if Davis struggles like he did last year.

Defensively, both Patterson and Davis excel in right field (particularly in comparison to their left field stats) as evidenced by their ultimate zone ratings (UZR). Patterson's right field, home/away, UZR/150 over his career is 198.9/15.1 and -10.4/3.3 in right field. Rajai Davis' right field (home/away) UZR/150 over his career is 21.1/5.5 and -16.5/-16.2 in left field. Seems like if Bautista is going to be stationed at third base, we can expect Snider to be in left field and Davis (with Patterson backing him up) in right field. It's not a signing to get excited about really, but it's also one that costs nothing, risks nothing, and still provides some insurance for the ball club.

The rest of the signings are basically just fliers on guys who've shown some success in the minors but not much in the big leagues. Maybe one of them turns into the next Scott Downs who the Jays picked up for nothing and who turned into one of their most reliable relievers. And if not, who the fuck cares, like I said earlier it costs nothing and risks nothing.

Greinke is taking his talents to Milwaukee

The Kansas City Royals have finally shipped their disgruntled ace out of town, and he's heading to the Milwaukee Brewers. Going the other way are four propsects, two of which have MLB experience. Considering the Jays were rumoured to be interested in acquiring Greinke I figured it would be worthwhile to give some stats on the four players heading to Kansas City so we can all do what you know we are going to do and compare them to any Jays propsects that could have been used to acquire Greinke.

Lorenzo Cain was considered one of the Brewers top 10 propects heading into the 2010 season. Thecentre fielder hit .317/.402/.432 across two minor league levels before getting the call up to the majors. In only 148 plate appearances he hit a very respectable .306/.348/.415. He's considered mainly a gap hitter with not a tonne of power, but exceptional speed. He stole 33 bases in 37 attempts between the minors and majors.

Alcides Escobar is a shortstop who was considered the Brewers top prospect before the 2010 season. He spent the entire year in the majors and accumulated a very unimpressive .235/.288/.326 slash line. He is, however, considered a defensive master and a large portion of his vlaue lies in his glove.

Jeremy Jeffress was ranked as the 3rd best pitching prospect in the Brewers system last year. He missed significant amounts of time between the 2009 and 2010 seasons for repeatedly testing positive for marijuana. It doesn't seem to be affecting his pitching, though, as his fastball consistently touches 100 mph.

Lastly, Jake Odorizzi. He was ranked as the Brewers top pitching prospect last year, was also considered the best high school pitcher in the 2008 draft and is likely the prospect with the highest ceiling in this trade. He's only 20 years old and pitched to a 3.43 ERA in Class A last year.

I think it's pretty safe to say that the rumoured package centred around Drabek and Snider would have gotten the deal done with the Royals. From strictly looking at the numbers (as I've never actually seen any of these guys play) I would take Snider or Drabek over all four of them, and Anthopolous did very well to not be willing to part with those guys. 

Apparently the Royals were looking for both quantity over quality and were also looking to fill holes in their system at shortstop and centre field. I've never agreed with GMs making trades strictly to fill "holes" in their farm system instead of trading for the highest talent. That talent can always be flipped at a later time to acquire the position player you require.

From the Jays perspective, they managed to snag Brett Lawrie fom the Brewers before the Royals were able to get their hands on him. There's really no doubt that he would have been included in the Greinke trade were he still available, and from a talent level is on par or above any of the players KC acquired in the trade. If you want to look back even further, you can compare this trade to the Roy Halladay trade last year. Which propects would you rather have on the Jays? I'd take Drabek, D'Arnaud and Gose any day for one year of Roy Halladay over what the Royals were able to obtain for two years of Greinke. Well done again, sir Alex.
 

Blue Jays Re-Acquire Edwin Encarnacion

Well, Alex Anthopolous is a man of his word. He said he was looking for a 1B/DH type who could give the team some flexibility and he's done just that. Can't say I saw this coming, though. In a surprise move, the Jays have re-signed third-baseman Edwin Encarnacion to a 1-year $2.5M contract to the be team's 1B/DH. The contract includes a club option at $3.5M the following year.

As much as I hated watching EE airmail throws, trot down the first base line and disappear for weeks at a time at the plate, I don't necessarily hate this pickup. Aside from his 21 homeruns last year, his numbers in Toronto have been nothing short of a shit show. His slash line last year was .244/.305./482 and the year before that .240/.306/.442. But he isn't that far removed from his most productive years while in Cincinnati where in 2008 he hit .251/.340/.466 with 26 HR. I'd take that any day for $2.5M.

Then there's his glove, which obviously leaves much to be desired as his career -11.5 UZR/150 can attest, but as any Jays fan can tell you, the majority of his defensive shittiness resides in throwing, so having him at 1B or DH takes that negative out of the equation. Although, I can't imagine that he won't be shuffled over to third base at some point during the season for a few spot starts, and on those days it should be fun painful to see him make Adam Lind earn his paycheck at 1B.

The other thing I want to touch on is now teams and fans seem to be under the impression that 1B is a black hole where they can hide terrible defensive players. I get that Overbay's time in Toronto had run its course, and it was a time for change, but I have a feeling all those "fans" who felt it was their obligation to call the Fan590 and voice their displeasure towards Overbay ever so eloquently will be wishing he was still around when we have the dynamic duo of Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion manning the cold corner.

So what does this mean for the rest of the offseason in Blue Jay land? Well, if AA is telling the truth and plans to play EE at 1B/DH and isn't just using this as a bargaining tactic, it's safe to assume the Derek Lee rumours will now end. There's no place for him now. Same goes for Manny Ramirez. There is, however, a hole at third base (or in the the outfield if Bautista is moved to third) that the team will have to address. I don't usually advocate bringing up prospects prematurely as it can not only damage the player's confidence but it also wastes a year of eligibility on a season where the team doesn't figure to compete for a playoff spot. However, I don't think the Blue Jays' shinny new prospect is lacking in confidence (if anything he could use being knocked down a peg), and if you think this team is aiming to to truly compete in 2012 why not start developing the team's top position prospect at the major league level now? Just a thought...

Delusional Yankee followers

While I was scrolling through MLBtraderumors today I came across an article written by Joel Sherman of the NY Post  that I thought was pretty telling of front-runner Yankee fans and media. The general theme of the article is that the Yankees will be a "deeper, less top-heavy team without Cliff Lee", since they can now allocate the money they would have spent on Lee to other places including the bullpen and a 4th outfielder.

Let me first point out just how ridiculous the notion is that if the Yankees had of spent $20-$25M per year on Cliff Lee they wouldn't have enough left to spend on extra arms in the bullpen or a 4th fucking outfielder. Those two relievers and a utility man would have put them over the top. Not Sabathia, Texeira, Burnett, Jeter, Rivera, or A-Rod's contracts.

Next on Sherman's Pulitzer prize worthy article was stating that the Yankees have one of the best farm systems in the MLB, and a solid young "core" that includes Robinson Cano and uhhhh...

Things to take away from Cliff Lee signing in Philadelphia

Christmas came a little early last night for Jays fans, and I guess Phillies fans too, when Cliff Lee signed in Philadelphia. Aside from the awesomeness that is now the Phillies rotation which now includes Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton (until he's traded that is), this is fantastic news for the Jays as one of the games' top pitchers won't be making a home in New York (or even the American Fucking League!) for the next 7 years.

What's really refreshing about the entire scenario is that a professional athlete, seemingly at the top of his game, took less money and less years to play in the city he wants to play for. The fact that it's the Yankees that he spurned is just icing on the cake. For some reason, though, I do actually feel some sympathy for the Rangers who seemed to have pulled out all the stops to sign Lee. So I figured we can take a quick look at the options for the Rangers moving forward:

• They've been linked to Zack Greinke (almost) as much as the Blue Jays, so this is very much still an option for the team. You'd have to think that the asking price for Greinke just got a little steeper now that Lee is off the market, and the Rangers' desperation is seeping out Nolan Ryan's pores.
• There's been talk of moving Neftali Feliz from the closer's role to the starting rotation. If the Rangers buy into the notion of 'closer by committee' this could be a great option. If they want to keep a bonafide closer in the mix, there's always Rafael Soriano too.
• They can say 'fuck it' as far as adding pitching and look at adding some offense through the trade market or by signing someone like Adrian Beltre. Their starting rotation without Lee is still respectable with CJ Wilson (3.39 ERA), Tommy Hunter (3.88 ERA), Colby Lewis (3.48 ERA), Scott Feldman (5.48 ERA) and Derek Holland (4.19 ERA).

How MLB payrolls affect teams' chances of winning

There's been a lot of talk lately about the need to institute a salary cap in the MLB, particularly after the signings of Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, the potential extension signed by Adrian Gonzalez, and the inevitable contract signed by Cliff Lee. It really doesn't seem like teams are playing on a level playing field when other teams like the Yankees can afford to spend whatever it takes to field a winner. What a seemingly endless supply of money also does is it allows teams to take chances on free-agents that smaller market teams can't take. Hell, why not sign Cliff Lee to a 7 year $160 million contract even if you only expect him to be good for another 4 years if the money really doesn't matter?

I've heard people argue that payrolls don't play as big of a role in the success of teams as one might think, and the San Francisco Giants' World Series victory seems to be the rallying cry around this school of thought. Here's the problem with that, though: The Giants had a higher payroll than every other team in its division last year. Any baseball fan tell you that it's a game of sample sizes. This is why they play 162 games a year, and why the payroll of a team is significant when related to the payrolls of the other teams within its division. Any team can conceivably win once they make it to the playoffs because the sample sizes are so much smaller. Kansas City could beat the Yankees in a best out of five series, but I sure as shit wouldn't bet on them having a better record over the course of a season.

Some stray thoughts from around the MLB

With nothing really exciting happening in baseball world right now, I figured I'd scour the internet (ie. scroll through MLBtraderumors.com) looking for any interesting tidbits going on right now. Here they are:

• Cliff Lee still hasn't decided where he will sign, but apparently the Yankees are growing increasingly pessimistic about their chances. What seemed like a slam dunk only weeks ago for the Yanks has now tilted in the Rangers' favour. According to Brian Costa of The Wall Street Journal, one reason why the Rangers are able to offer similar money to Lee could have something to do with the fact that Texas doesn't have a state income tax. So they could effectively offer the same money to Lee for less. On the other hand, Lee would presumably make way more money on endorsement deals in New York. Either way, he's going to be one rich bastard, so who really cares.
• Apparently the Red Sox were the only team to discuss Justin Upton with the Diamondbacks at the Winter Meetings, but "scoffed" at the notion of including Daniel Bard in the trade discussions. Really? That's what killed the trade talks?
• Six teams are interested in Derek Lee, including the Blue Jays. This would be a great pickup for the Jays.
• According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Jays have no interest in including Drabek and Snider in a trade for Zack Greinke. No shit.
• Baseball time in Arlington has an interesting read comparing a potential Cliff Lee deal to the one A-Rob signed with the Rangers in 2001.

That's all for now. I'm hoping to get a much more deserving post up tomorrow!

More on the Carl Crawford acquisition

I feel like a child who's been acting out and is now being punished by his parents. A lot of Jays fans (myself included) really felt as though the Jays were beginning to turn that corner, that maybe they were a piece or two away from really competing in the AL East. Then out comes the wooden spoon.

Last night, when the Boston Red Sox announced they had signed Carl Crawford to a seven year-$142 million contract, any illusions of grandeur came crashing back to reality. The Red Sox aren't regressing like many of us hoped and you can fucking bet the Yankees won't stand idly by as Boston builds the most dangerous line-up in the league. What I hope does come out of all this, though, is that the Jays stick to their plan of building for sustainable success, because they won't be spending $20 million a year on a player anytime soon (and yes I realize Vernon Wells is making between $21-$23 million each of the next 4 years - but I consider that a blip in the radar, and one that has hamstrung the jays since it was signed). They need to build from within much like the Tampa Bay Rays have done the past few years, and hopefully when the time comes to either re-sign one of their stars or bring in a free-agent to put them over the top, Rogers is there to put their money where their mouths are.

Enough of my preaching. Here are some of the thoughts and reactions from around the MLB to the Crawford signing:

• The Angels and Rangers, who were both "in hard" on Carl Crawford may now be able to make a stronger push for Cliff Lee. Gay.
• The Red Sox interest in Scott Downs may increase as they won't have to surrender their 1st round pick. That will now be going to Tampa Bay, while the Jays would receive the Red Sox 2nd rounder . This signing just keeps getting better for Jays fans.
• With a crowded outfield, Boston is basically out of the running for Magglio Ordonez. I'd still like to see Ordonez on a one year contract in Toronto, but I'm so discouraged right now I really don't care.
• Apparently several AL executives feel as though Crawford's athleticism will be wasted in left field at Fenway.

Carl Crawford signs with Boston

It's late so I'll wait for tomorrow to analyze this acquisition. But holy fuck the AL East just got a whole lot tougher. Remember when we were all talking about the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays taking major steps back this year? Maybe the people crying about losing Marcum for a blue chip prospect are starting to see why it's so important to build for sustained success through acquiring high ceiling talent in this division. Especially for a team that can't spend with the big boys.

Anthopolous meets with the media Part Deux

As promised, we wanted to summarize some of the important points Anthopolous made in tonight's media scrum at the winter meetings. Wilner's doing a bang up job of getting the information from the daily media briefing with AA over at his blog, and we want to touch on some of what he's written about.

First on the ballot, AA is fully committed to playing Adam Lind at first base next year. He says that during his limited games at first last year ('atta boy Cito!) he displayed soft hands, but needs to work on his footwork to truly excel at the position. He explained that if Lind is able to man first base for the foreseeable future it opens up a lot of flexibility for the team to acquire a DH, who are more easily attainable. The Jays also don't have Encarnacion throwing bricks over to first, so the need to have a gold glove first baseman to bail him out won't be so crucial.

Speaking of finding a DH, Anthopolous says that the team is no longer looking at Manny Ramirez as an option. He would prefer to sign someone who is able to play different positions (especially if Lind begins to struggle at first base), and Ramirez butchering left field can't really be classified as "able to play" anything. I don't know if I entirely agree with AA on this point. I think if you're committed to playing Lind at first base, then why not be committed to employing Ramirez's bat and OBP at DH? If he's concerned about giving Lind some days off or insurance in case he shits the bed (which you shouldn't  be concerned with if you're going to start the season with him there) then you can still bring in Ramirez and get creative with your other players (for example: occasional starts at first for Bautista) or sign a defense first guy to come off the bench and play first. I say piss or get off the pot on this one, AA. Either commit to Lind at first, or find a better option - a la Derek Lee.Unless of course he sees Magglio Ordonez as the type of player who can be moved around to different positions - including first base. Then I'm all for it! How's that for picking a side?

Last thing, AA didn't deny any interest in Russel Martin, who I do think makes some sense for the team. If the Jays are finally willing to hand the reigns over to JP Arencibia, it would be nice to have a very capable, yet declining, catcher to back him up. That's assuming of course that Martin is willing to take a backup role. There's also the possibility that Russel could fill in at third base, or even first base for that matter, which would give Anthopolous the flexibility he's looking for.  That way he can sign a DH to do just that - D fucking H - and leave the flexing to the utility players.

Anthopolous meets with the media Part 1

Mike Wilner has been covering the winter meetings in Orlando very closely (considering he's actually in Orlando, he damn well should be) and has some really interesting reads at his blog. Here's my take on some of the things Anthopolous spoke to the media about yesterday.

One comment that really stood out to me was when AA touched on his not being overly open with the media with regards to potential deals that he's working on.  He talked about how he recognizes that fans want to be a part of the discussions and that he would "rather not be completely quiet and not comment on anything". The reason why he keeps things close to the vest is that he's seen so many deals that were close to happening but then other teams catch wind of the deal and get involved, which drives the price up (or down depending on which side of the coin you're on). This was particularly interesting for me because it related back to my thought process on all the Grienke rumors. We've heard so much talk about the Jays being involved in trade discussions with the Royals, but if you think about it, we've never heard anything about any of the deals AA has actually pulled off until they're done.

Anthopolous also addressed the need to..ugh...address the back end of the bullpen. He mentioned how last year they picked up Gregg after the majority of the other relievers had found homes, and that he doesn't plan to wait quite as long this year. I get the sense from AA that he doesn't necessarily prescribe to the notion of "closer by committee" and would prefer to have a bona fide closer finishing off games. There's been some debate lately as to the actual value of a full-time closer, and the numbers seem to point to there really being no benefit. I'm still not completely convinced that having a legitimate closer is without value, though. Just ask the Yankees how it feels to have Rivera come out of the pen every ninth inning (when they're winning, that is). Now there obviously isn't a Mariano Rivera waiting in the wings to become the next long term closer for the Jays, so closer by committee might be the best option for the team right now. I certainly wouldn't want them throwing a tonne of money at Soriano, if that was the alternative.

That's all for now. I'll have a post from today's media scrum with Anthopolous soon.

The search for a first baseman. Thanks again Cito.

A few days ago I wrote a post about the possibility of Carlos Pena signing with the Blue Jays, as a one-year stop gap before the team could find a longer term solution. I was right on one count, as he did sign a one-year contract with the Chicago Cubs yesterday, but holy shit was I off on the salary. As The Blue Jay Hunter mentioned in the comments section of the post "bravo to Scott Boras".

That being said, the concept of signing a veteran first baseman with above average defensive skills and decent a bat is still something I would consider if I were Alex Anthopolous. And no, I don't mean Lyle Overbay. The two names that stick out to me are Adam Laroche and Derek Lee. Let's take a look at each player's stats:

• Adam Laroche
• At age 31 sports a career slash line of .271/.339/.488
• Last year posted a .261/.320/.468 line with 25 homeruns
• Last year posted a WAR of 2.1
• He only made a $4.5 million in salary.
• He looks like Bert from Sesame Street.  
• Derek Lee
• Career slash line is .282/.367/.498
• Last year posted a .260/.347/.428 line in a down year
• Posted WARs of 3.9, 3.2, 5.2, 2.0 in the past four years, respectively.
• He made a wopping $13.25 million last year, but won't command anything near that this year. I would hope. 
• He's 35 years old

Based on last year's WAR alone, you could make an argument that Laroche is the better option; especially given his age. I tend believe however that although Derrek Lee is getting old, his stats from last year really aren't indicative of what we can expect from the veteran first baseman going forward. As Drunk Jays Fans pointed out, his poor numbers could be a result of an injured thumb he played with for the entire season and had surgery on once the season was over.

Again all this speculation, well, is just that. I would never consider signing Lee to antyhing longer than a one year contract, and wouldn't want to come close to the deal Carlos Pena recently signed with Cubs. If the asking price and terms are in the right ballpark (honestly, no pun intended), I think you could do a hell of a lot worse than signing Derrek Lee.

That being said, it's a good thing we never got see much of Adam Lind at first base last year or we might not be able to have soooo much fun throwing these rumours around. We might instead be talking about bringing in a veteran DH like Manny Ramirez or Ordonez, and having our long term solution at first base taken care of. Thanks again Cito.

Thoughts about the ongoing Greinke rumors

I had a thought last night. A thought that I don't necessarily think is a reality, but one that could be a very savvy way of negotiating in the MLB.  We keep hearing rumors about the Jays being fully engaged in trade talks to bring Zack Greinke to Toronto. What we also keep hearing along the rumor mill is that the Jays are reluctant to part with both Kyle Drabek and Travis Snider in order to acquire the former Cy Young winner. Stay with me here...

What if the Jays don't really have all that much interest in Grienke and instead are increasing the potential trade value of both Drabek and Snider by being (supposedly) unwilling to part with them for arguably one of the best pitchers in the game? From what we've seen from Anthopolous so far in his short tenure as Jays GM, we don't typically hear of any rumors that actually come to fruition. All the trades or signings that have actually happened have been out of the blue, and this leads me to believe that a deal for Grienke will never happen, and also that we may see a deal involving Drabek and/or Snider happen in the near future. Think about. What if this is all jockying through the media by AA to acquire Justin Upton? He can now say to Arizona "I wouldn't include those players in a trade for Zack Grienke, who's just as valuable to us as Justin Upton. So bring your asking price down or fuck off." In those exact words, hopefully.

And some other notes and thoughts:

• The Red Sox are close to signing Adrian Gonzalez to a 7 year - $154 million contract extension. A good signing in my eyes. 
• The Nationals are apparently willing to offer Cliff Lee a 7th year and have emerged as the unlikely favourite to land him. Although it would be a shame to see the team leverage its seemingly bright future by signing yet another aging player to ridiculous contract, it would at least keep Lee out of New York. I still don't see him signing anywhere other than Texas or New York, though.
•  Shaun Marcum was surprised with being traded to Milwaukee, especially since the Jays began contract extension talks just two days prior.
• The Jays have shown interest in Matt Diaz. This would be an intriguing pickup as he absolutely destroys left handed pitching (to the tune of .355/.373/.533) and would be a great platoon/back-up plan should Lind struggle against lefties again in 2011.

Blue Jays have hard on for Carlos Pena

I mean in hard for Carlos Pena. That's as far I'll take the joke, I promise.

According to Gordon Edes of ESPN, the Jays are interested in free-agent first baseman Carlos Pena. Far be it from me to endorse any idea that involves signing an aging, declining first baseman who last year hit below the Mendoza line and had an OBP of .325, but fuck it, I'm going to do just that. First I'm going to give you the bad, then I'll try to explain why I don't think it's the worst idea I've ever heard.

• He hit .196 last year, and as mentioned had an OBP of .325
• Of the 582 plate appearances he only had 95 hits. 28 of which were homeruns.
• His production has decreased in each of the last four years
• The Jays need OBP not more homeruns
• He's a Scott Boras client

Now for my argument...I like to think of Carlos Pena as this year's Adrian Beltre. I mentioned that one of the bad things about Carlos Pena is that he is a Scott Boras client, but maybe this ONE time it could work in a team's favour. Adrian Beltre was coming off terrible years in Seattle finishing his final year there with a .265/.304/.379 slash line and 8 homeruns. Boras advised Beltre to sign a one year deal (worth $9 million) with the Red Sox, confident that he could improve on his recent stats in order to garner a huge contract the following year. Look how that one worked out. Beltre is also highly valued for his glove, just as Pena is, meaning that his value is not strictly attributed to his bat.

I'd be very comfortable in signing Pena to a one year contract and let him play his ass off for his next longer term contract (presumably hopefully signing somewhere other than Toronto).  I realize last year was a contract year as well, and things didn't quite work out roses for Pena, but maybe whatever Boras did or said to Beltre last year can have the same effect on Carlos.

The other issue this potential acquisition brings up, is where would this leave Adam Lind and the ManRam (fuck, this post is full of gay innuendo) lobyists. I actually don't see this as a bad thing. Remember the Jays did acquire Rajai Davis to presumably be a defensive replacement/pinch runner/occasional lead off hitter? Well what about playing Lind in left field, Manny at DH and Carlos Pena at first? It could possibly be the worst fucking defensive outfield in the history of baseball with Lind/Wells/Snider patrolling out there, but god damn would it be fun to watch! And besides, I'm thinking the upgrade defensively at first (Pena over Lind) is worth the downgrade in left field if Lind were stuck there. The other solution is to scrap the Manny idea, play Lind at DH and Pena at 1B.

Either way there are a tonne of question marks with any of these moves, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of Carlos Pena in a Jays uniform just yet.

Winter meetings start with a bang for the Jays!

As I'm sure most of you have heard by now, the Jays have traded 2010 opening day start Shaun Marcum to the Milwaukee Brewers for Brett Lawrie. I'll admit when I first heard of the trade, I couldn't beleve that the Jays were only able to extract one prospect for Marcum who was coming off a career year, even if that one prospect was Brett Lawrie. After taking some time to process it, however, this trade makes perfect sense for both teams. Toronto receives a young, controlable asset with an incredibly high ceiling; while the Brewers receive a proven starter who will immediately step into the two hole with Milwaukee, and most likely kill it in the NL Central.

Brett Lawrie was drafted 16th overall in the 2008 draft. One spot ahead of Toronto - who were said to be coveting Lawrie had he dropped to them. For what it's worth, Baseball America had him ranked as the second best prospect in the Brewers system. Of and he's Canadian, so Bob Elliott can rest well.

Lawrie played 135 games for Double A Huntsville last year, hitting .285/.346/.451 and hitting 8 homers. What really stands out to me is the 16 triples and 30 stolen bases (although he was caught 13 times). This shows the guy has speed, and from all the reports I've read about him, scouts believe he has some pop in his bat which he should start to realize once his body develops (he is only 20 years old). Defensively, the reviews haven't been so glowing. For starters, nobody knows where he'll play. He's been playing 2B in Double A, but committed 25 errors and had a .961 fielding percentage. There's talk of him possible playing 3B or in left field which obviously greatly diminishes his value by not playing at a premium position.

Now there really are two schools of thought as to where this leaves the Jays' plans for the 2011 season. There had been rumors that Anthopolous thought the team was one significant piece away from contending for an AL East title, which led a lot of people to belive that a trade for Zack Greinke was imminent. On the one hand, the Marcum trade could signify AA opening up a spot in the rotation to fill with the likes of Greinke, and I personally wouldn't put it past him. On the other hand, why would the Jays trade away a player who would help them win now for a player who will require a promotion to play in Vegas next year?  

Here are some other interesting notes:

• The Washington Nationals emerged "victorious" in the Jayson Werth sweepstakes, signing the 31 year old to a 7 year - $126 million deal. And to answer your question, yes they are fucking retarded.
• Zack Greinke will go anywhere. Although the Jays are on his no-trade list, a deal could be worked out if it gets to that point.
• Pat Gillick has deservedly been inducted into the Hall of Fame. I wonder if he'll enter as a Blue Jay...
• Do yourself a favour and go check out Getting Blanked at thescore.ca. They've got a killer interview with Alex Anthopolous and a live tracker of the winter meetings....sigh....
• If you haven't seen it yet, check out my saaweeet paint skills in my Adrian Gonzalez post. First blog on the internet to have a pic of AGon in a Red Sox uni?

Red Sox have acquired Adrian Gonzalez.

It's a done deal., and I'm tired of writing about it.

My bad. Adrian Gonzalez trade off the table...for now.

Yesterday it seemed as though a deal sending Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox for a package of prospects centered around Casey Kelly was as all but guaranteed. According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the odds are now that Adrian Gonzalez will not be heading to Boston. The trade apparently hinged on the Red Sox' ability to sign Gonzalez to a long term contract in the narrow negotiating window granted by MLB. This doesn't mean that a deal is dead, but it does give hope to us Jays fans who didn't want to see one of the best first basemen in the league in a Red Sox uniform.

In all fairness though, it's difficult to imagine AGon not going to the Red Sox eventually. Boston must have known the type of money and years Gonzalez was looking for before agreeing to the conditional trade, and I find it hard to believe that something can't be worked out once he's part of the team. In fact, they may be better served waiting to see exactly how AGon's shoulder heals up before committing the GDP of Bangladesh to him.

More on this, the Jayson Werth signing and the potential Grienke trade later...

FAAAAAAACK! The Red Sox have apparently acquired Adrian Gonzalez.

Adrian Gonzalez is good. Really good. Really really fucking good. And we'll now be seeing him 18 times a year.

According to MLBtraderumors.com the Red Sox and Padres have struck a deal to send Adrian Gonzalez to Boston for a package of prospects. Gonzalez will make "just" $5.5 million this year, in the final year of his contract, and with his impending free-agency the Padres knew they couldn't afford their star first baseman long term. It must have been a difficult decision for the Padres seeing as how they only missed out on the playoffs by one game last year, but the team really is trading Gonzalez at what seems to be the peak of his value. The terms of the deal haven't yet been disclosed, but it has been written that it doesn't include any major league players and almost definitely centres around star prospect Casey Kelly.

The Jays were never really involved in any trade discussions for Gonzalez, but wholly rooster-dick would he have looked good in Toronto's line-up. Not even taking into consideration that he's won a gold glove in three of the past four seasons, the guy has hit more than 30 homeruns in each of the past 4 years, with an OBP at or near .400 for the last two. This guy is a stud, and Boston is a waaay better team for having acquired him. To give you an idea of how valuable Gonzalez is to a team, he was a 7.0 and a 6.3 WAR in the past two years, respectively. That's insane.

So where does this leave the Jays? Well it's obviously frustrating from a fan's perspective, as this was supposed to the year where the team really starts to turn the corner, with Boston and New York's aging lineups starting to show their cracks, and Tampa Bay losing significant parts of their core to free-agency. Unfortunately, this has not only added an MVP caliber player to Boston's line-up, you know damn well that the Yankees won't just sit idly by while the Sox stack their team. You know for a fact that New York will now up their pursuit of top free agents Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jason Werth. It should be an interesting test of Anthopolous' will, however. Will he stay the course? Continue to build through the draft for a sustainable future? Or will he feel like he has to make a significant move to keep up with the big boys? 
I would assume most likely not. Should be fun winter meetings this year either way...

Blue Jays acquire Carlos Villanueva

The Jays have just acquired Carlos Villanueva from the Milwaukee Brewers for a a player to be named later, in what is one of the more boring moves of the offseason, however one that could be very effective.

With the likely departure of Scott Downs, and the (thank-fucking-god) departure of Brian Tallet, the Jays were in desperate need for a long reliever and/or setup man; and depending on how Villanueva pitches next year he could very well fill either of those roles.

At first glance, Villanueva's numbers from last year don't look amazing. He finished the year with a 4.61 ERA and a 3.8BB/9. But he also managed a 11.8K/9 which is well above league average, and his defense independent stats show that the 4.61 ERA was greatly inflated last year. Basically what I'm saying is that this acquisition is a crap shoot. The guy obviously has strike-out ability, but his WHIP over the past few years coupled with his tendency to allow more fly balls than ground balls doesn't bode well in the Rogers Centre.

When it's all said and done, though, AA once again has acquired an asset for next to nothing. Villanueva could turn out to be a fucking steal, or he could turn out to be shit. But betting with house money makes it a win-win either way.

 

Whatever...keep the asshole in Chicago.

NOW according to MLBtradrumors.com, the Blue Jays are no longer interested in signing AJ Pierzynski, and it appears as though the catcher is staying put in Chicago. Last night I tried to justify why AA would sign the veteran catcher, and still see some merit to trying to bring him to Toronto (if only temporarily). However, it now seems like that was all a waste of time and that the Polish Prince will be remaining with the White Sox.

What all this does tell us, though, is that Anthopolous is still searching for more options at catcher, and that he doesn't quite feel comfortable heading into the season with Molina and JPA sharing time behind the plate. I'm just going to throw this out there, but wasn't Russel Marting non-tendered yesterday?...

Jays close to signing A.J. Pierzynsky...wait....what?

According to MLBtraderumors, the Blue Jays are about to sign former White Sox catcher, and renowned asshole AJ Pierzynsky. The terms of the potential deal are net released, but I'd imagine it's a one year deal (please only be a one-year deal) in the $4-5 million dollar range. But really, what the hell the do I know. Pierzynsky is a Type A free agent, but won't cost the Jays a pick since he wasn't offered arbitration by the White Sox.

Now Pierzynski didn't have a particularly good year last year, hitting .270/.300/.388 and is generally considered one of the most unliked players in the league, but I do see a method to the madness of Alex Anthopolous here. What bringing AJ into the mix does is create even more options through the trade market without costing anything except money; something AA and Rogers have shown to be willing to do.

This obviously puts the future of JP Arencibia with the Blue Jays in jeopardy, but creates additional options for the club in that they now have a surplus behind the plate. Pierzynski had quite a few suitors after being declared a free agent (the Red Sox and Dodgers for example) and could be a very valuable trade chip later in the season if they Jays find themselves out of the playoff race. If you look back to last year's signing of John Buck, AA has managed to secure a sandwich pick from Buck's departure, a sandwich pick from the Olivo acquisition and now potentially a starting catcher in AJ Pierzynski. If Pierzynski is traded or walks at the end of the year (presumably as a type B), AA has accumulated 2 picks and at least another pick or prospects for nothing more than money. They continue to accumulate assets without giving up anything.

As for JP Arencibia, you really have to feel for the guy. He's got nothing more to prove in the minors, and because of Cito's inexplicable (see: narcisistic) desire to get John Buck to 20 homeruns last year, was never given a real opportunity to prove his ability to call a good game and hit consistently at the major league level. I personally see the potential acquisition of Pierzynski as a sign that AA is preparing to trade JPA in a package to acquire players to fill more pressing holes for the team, and use Molina and Pierzynski as stop-gaps until the younger crop of prospect catchers in the Jays' system are ready. Who those players are is anybody's guess. But really, who cares?...Lebron's in Cleveland tonight!

Frasor accepts arbitration....ho hum...

So as anyone legitimately following the Blue Jays expected, Jason Frasor has officially accepted the team's offer of arbitration. Now I realize the hope was that Frasor would decline arbitration, but can anyone really say they could envision another team willing to part with a first round draft pick in order to sign this guy? I would have lost my fucking mind if the Jays were. The result, however, really isn't all THAT bad. Frasor managed a 3.68 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in just over 63 innings of work last year.  He also had a 9.2 SO/9 and 3.8 BB/9. He'll get a raise on his $2.65M salary through arbitration, but it really isn't the end of the world from a numbers perspective. What is irritating is the fact that we're going to have actually watch this guy pitch next year. Rivaled by maybe only Kelvim Escobar, the game literally slows to a fucking crawl when he's out there. But whatever, I'll overlook it if he can improve on last year's numbers.

I think it may be time for Jays fans to come to the realization that Jason Frasor will be with us forever. Based on his numbers over his career, he's not going to fluctuate much, and will always pitch just well enough to maintain his Type A status, and therefore have no reason not to accept arbitration. Anthopolous could however unload him to one of his suitors, or non-tender him next year, but who really knows.

The Lind Hypothesis

Ever since the season ended, or rather once everyone realized Lyle Overbay wouldn't be returning as the Jays' first baseman (which should have been a loooong fucking time ago), there has been endless speculation about how the team plans to fill its gapping hole at first base.  More specifically, people following the Jays' offseason continue to discuss whether or not Adam Lind is capable of playing first base. This is particularly important as the team is deciding whether or not to sign a certain high-profile DH with a pension for Toronto women.

Now correct me if I'm out of line here, but seeing as how the Jays were basically out of the playoff race by the time the Allstar game came around, wouldn't the second half of the year have been the optimal time to see if Lind was in fact capable of playing first base? Or was last year all about Cito's swan song and making sure he achieved his over .500 winning percentage? Or getting free-agent-to-be Lyle Overbay 20 homer-runs?

What surprises me the most from the entire situation is that Anthopolous allowed all of this to happen. Since AA has taken the reigns, he's not only made decisions that are hard to argue with, he's preached the need to develop young talent with high ceilings. He knew that there was no way Overbay would be back in a Jays unifrom and should have forced Cito's hand in playing Lind almost everyday at first base to see whether or not he had the talent to play there. Assuming Lind bounces back from his awful 2010 where his OBP was 0.159 and his slugging percentage was 0.182 against lefties (Honestly. Look it up if you don't believe me.) if he had proved his ability to play first base, he would be a great option at the position and would allow the team to pursue a full time DH.

Hopefully it's all a moot point, though, and Adam Lind wins his first of 11 gold gloves in 2011 at first base much like the ridiculously talented Keith Hernandez...although the fact that he doesn't play in New York might hinder that more than his talent.