Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Things to take away from Cliff Lee signing in Philadelphia

Christmas came a little early last night for Jays fans, and I guess Phillies fans too, when Cliff Lee signed in Philadelphia. Aside from the awesomeness that is now the Phillies rotation which now includes Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton (until he's traded that is), this is fantastic news for the Jays as one of the games' top pitchers won't be making a home in New York (or even the American Fucking League!) for the next 7 years.

What's really refreshing about the entire scenario is that a professional athlete, seemingly at the top of his game, took less money and less years to play in the city he wants to play for. The fact that it's the Yankees that he spurned is just icing on the cake. For some reason, though, I do actually feel some sympathy for the Rangers who seemed to have pulled out all the stops to sign Lee. So I figured we can take a quick look at the options for the Rangers moving forward:
  • They've been linked to Zack Greinke (almost) as much as the Blue Jays, so this is very much still an option for the team. You'd have to think that the asking price for Greinke just got a little steeper now that Lee is off the market, and the Rangers' desperation is seeping out Nolan Ryan's pores.
  • There's been talk of moving Neftali Feliz from the closer's role to the starting rotation. If the Rangers buy into the notion of 'closer by committee' this could be a great option. If they want to keep a bonafide closer in the mix, there's always Rafael Soriano too.
  • They can say 'fuck it' as far as adding pitching and look at adding some offense through the trade market or by signing someone like Adrian Beltre. Their starting rotation without Lee is still respectable with CJ Wilson (3.39 ERA), Tommy Hunter (3.88 ERA), Colby Lewis (3.48 ERA), Scott Feldman (5.48 ERA) and Derek Holland (4.19 ERA).

What does this mean for the Yankees? I really don't give a shit. Go sign Carl Pavano and fuck off.

Now, let's look at this from the Jays' perspective. For one thing, the AL Wild Card is now wide open. The Yankees' rotation is not good. After CC Sabathia they have AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes as their 2 and 3 starters. They'll have to work hard at convincing Andy Pettite to return but who knows how long his 40-year-old body will hold up even if he does. You'll have to assume the Yankees will go out and trade for a proven starter, but aside from Zack Greinke, who's really available that will make a serious impact? Maybe Matt Garza? Maybe.

Then there's Tampa Bay. They're still going to be competitive, but you can't discount the fact that they lost their best player in Carl Crawford, and a gold glove first first baseman who although he hit below the Mendoza line last year still managed 28 homeruns. They're apparently shopping one of their starters (Matt Garza or James Shields) and will replace either one with a young, relatively unproven pitcher, so I think it's safe to assume they won't be as good as last year.

The Red Sox are stacked. I can't imagine them not winning the division, unless they get hit with injuries like last year and their starting pitching doesn't bounce back.

So does this mean the Jays re-evaluate their stance of building through high-ceiling prospects and maybe make a run at a Zack Greinke type of talent? Do they think that the Wild Card is there for the taking? I think if they add a significant piece or two they have as good a shot as anybody, but I still wouldn't be willing to mortgage any part of the future for a chance to win now. There's going to be two wild card spots in a couple years and if the Jays stay the course and keep stock-piling young, high upside talent like they have been, they should be even more prepared to go after that missing piece to put them over the top in the American League.

By the way, how awesome was that Cliff Lee catch in the World Series last year?

UPDATE:
There's a rumour going around that the Red Sox agreed to take Joe Blanton and his $17M over the next two seasons off the Phillies hands to help facilitate Cliff Lee signing in Philadelphia (and therefore NOT New York). The amount of money the Red Sox have spent (or intend to spend in the case of Adrian Gonzalez) shows that they have the money and the balls to do whatever it takes to win. What other team would benefit as much as Boston in keeping Cliff Lee away from New York? Seems to me like $17M really isn't all that much if you think of it that way. Blanton is so obviously not a fit at Fenway (I'll let you look up how bad his numbers have been since being traded from Oakland to Philly, particularly his attrotious fly ball to ground ball ratio) that I'd assume Boston will just flip Blanton to another team while eating a significant portion of his salary. This is all still just a conspiracy since Boston hasn't yet acquired Joe Blanton, but if this is true, Theo Epstein is a fucking genius and my new hero (sorry Joe Carter).

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