Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Blue Jays trade Mike Napoli to the Rangers for Frank Francisco

There's got to be something I'm missing here. I usually buy into the whole trust in AA and his legion of minions way of thinking, but I can honestly say this one has me completely stumped.

Aside from being able to unload Vernon Wells' contract on the Angels, I was actually excited about the acquisition of Mike Napoli. He seemed like such a perfect fit to share time at the three positions where the Jays are most uncertain (Catcher, First Base and DH). Instead, Anthopolous has flipped him for another right-handed reliever.

The Jays now have Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor and Frank (don't call me San) Francisco manning the back end of the bullpen - all of whom are right handed. So essentially the Jays have traded from a position of weakness to add to a position of strength (I use the term "strength" more in terms of numbers rather than actual ability). Don't get me wrong, Francisco is actually a pretty good pitcher and is arguably the best of the bunch the Jays now control, but what the two players involved offer the current Jays lineup just doesn't add up.

So let's try to come up with some reasons for the trade, and then proceed to shoot them down:

1) AA is stockpilling above average relievers in hopes of receiving draft picks after the season.
Considering Francisco also accepted the arbitration offer from the Rangers last season due to his Type A free agent ranking, coupled with the fact that he will most likely get a chance to close for the Jays (meaning that ranking isn't likely to change), I can't picture a scenario where he doesn't accept another arbitration offer next year. Sound familiar? Well it should, it's exactly what the team is dealing with in Jason Frasor. No team would give up a first round pick for either pitcher and therefore it makes more sense for them to accept the offer of arbitration. The draft pick logic also doesn't hold true even if Francisco somehow slips to become a Type B free agent (resulting in whatever team signs him not having to give up a first round pick) and the Jays receive a supplementary round pick, because Mike Napoli is still worth more than a sandwich pick. It's a lose/lose.

2) AA is stockpilling above average relievers in hopes of flipping them at the trade deadline. 
Once again, just look at what happened last year to both Frank Francisco and Jason Frasor. No teams are willing to give up much to acquire them mid-season because they know the players will be Type A free agents and will be expensive the next year through arbitration.

3) AA has a separate trade in the works and required a pitcher like Frank Francisco to make it happen. 
There has to be something brewing behind the scenes, but I find it hard to believe that Frank Francisco is the missing piece to any potential future trade AA has cooking. His numbers just aren't different enough from Frasor's to make it make sense. Here are each pitcher's numbers last season:
Frank Francisco: 3.33 K/BB, 0.85 HR/9, .243 AVG, 1.27 WHIP, 3.12 FIP
Jason Frasor: 2.41 K/BB, 0.57 HR/9, .246 AVG, 1.38 WHIP, 3.31 FIP

There are also a couple other issues that comes out of the trade:

1) Why didn't the Jays sign Manny Ramirez?
I have to imagine, given past decisions, that Anthopolous knew ahead of time that he was going to flip Napoli and leave the team with a void at DH (even with Encarnacion on the team, I mean come on..). I realize that it might decrease the leverage the Jays would have in trading Napoli, but fuck, he's still a goddamn good player and I find it hard to believe that if the Rangers really wanted him that the Jays still could have received Francisco in return. Ramirez plus Francisco is greater than Napoli, regardless of the flexibility Napoli provides to the lineup.

2) Is Anthopolous trying to piss the Angels off?
I mentioned in my previous post about the Wells trade that GMs around the league probably took notice at how Anthopolous took advantage of the Angel's apparent desperation and essentially made their GM look ridiculous. My thought was that other team's GMs might think twice about swinging a deal with the crafty Toronto GM. What do you think other General Managers will think now that Anthopolous has fleeced the Angels, then traded the player back into the AL West? I'm assuming AA never mentioned anything about Napoli being flipped into the same division as his former team. That's a greasy move. Greasy like a fox.  

Is this a slight hiccup in what has been an incredibly successful start to Anthopolous' Genera; Manager career? Or does AA have something else in store to prove us all wrong? Only time will tell, I guess.

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